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Will GTA VI be released during 2026? Odds Compared
2 platforms $3.7M total volume Resolves January 15, 2027 Quoted 17h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Yes
97%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Metaculus | Polymarket US | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 35% | 4% | 31.5pt |
| Yes | 65% | 97% | 31.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
[Grand Theft Auto VI]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_VI ) (GTA VI) is an upcoming action-adventure game developed and published by [Rockstar Games]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockstar_Games ). It's predecessor [GTA V]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V ) is the second best selling video game of all time with an estimated [220 million]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games ) copies sold.
Currently scheduled to be released on [19 November 2026]( https://www.gamesradar.com/gta-6-guide/ ), the game has been repeatedly delayed with initial expectations of a 2024 released missed with a [2025 release date]( https://www.pcgamesn.com/grand-theft-auto-vi/gta-6-release-date-setting-map-characters-gameplay-trailers ). The game was then delayed to [May 2026]( https://www.ign.com/articles/gta-6-delayed-to-may-2026 ), before again being delayed to [November 2026]( https://www.ign.com/articles/gta-6-is-delayed-again-until-november-2026 ).
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Will GTA VI be released during 2026"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Metaculus, Polymarket US. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Will GTA VI be released during 2026"?
"Yes" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 97%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Will GTA VI be released during 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "No", where prices differ by 31.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Will GTA VI be released during 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2027.