Economics
Fed decision in December? Odds Compared
2 platforms $4.5M total volume Resolves December 9, 2026 Quoted 6h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Hike 25bps
77%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 25bps | 0% | — | — |
| Cut >25bps | 0% | — | — |
| 25 bps decrease | — | 1% | — |
| Hike 25bps | 77% | — | — |
| Hike >25bps | 5% | — | — |
| 25 bps increase | — | 77% | — |
| Fed maintains rate | 22% | 21% | 1.5pt |
| 50+ bps decrease | — | 1% | — |
| 50+ bps increase | — | 3% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Fed decision in December"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Fed decision in December"?
"Hike 25bps" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 77%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Fed decision in December"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Fed maintains rate", where prices differ by 1.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Fed decision in December" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026.