Economics
How high will the S&P get this year? Odds Compared
2 platforms $63.9K total volume Resolves December 31, 2026 Quoted 13h ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7,200 or above | 99% | — | — |
| 7,400 or above | 99% | — | — |
| 7,600 or above | 99% | — | — |
| 8,000 or above | 53% | 51% | 1.8pt |
| 7,800 or above | 89% | 50% | 39.0pt |
| 8,800 or above | 7% | 3% | 3.8pt |
| 9,000 or above | 5% | 3% | 1.6pt |
| 8,200 or above | 28% | 23% | 5.8pt |
| 8,600 or above | 10% | 5% | 4.2pt |
| 8,400 or above | 11% | 8% | 3.0pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "How high will the S&P get this year"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "How high will the S&P get this year"?
"7,200 or above" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 99%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "How high will the S&P get this year"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "7,800 or above", where prices differ by 39.0 percentage points across platforms.
When does "How high will the S&P get this year" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.