Economics
How high will the S&P get this year? Odds Compared
2 platforms
$61.4K total volume
Resolves December 31, 2026
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
7,200 or above
99%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7,400 or above | 32% | — | — |
| 8,200 or above | 47% | 32% | 15.4pt |
| 7,600 or above | 81% | — | — |
| 8,000 or above | 79% | 71% | 7.7pt |
| 8,600 or above | 16% | 14% | 1.7pt |
| 9,000 or above | 9% | 8% | 0.9pt |
| 7,200 or above | 99% | — | — |
| 8,800 or above | 11% | 8% | 2.7pt |
| 7,800 or above | 89% | 93% | 4.4pt |
| 8,400 or above | 25% | 24% | 0.7pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "How high will the S&P get this year?"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "How high will the S&P get this year?"?
"7,200 or above" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 99%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "How high will the S&P get this year?"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "8,200 or above", where prices differ by 15.4 percentage points across platforms.
When does "How high will the S&P get this year?" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.