Economics

How high will the S&P get this year? Odds Compared

2 platforms
$61.4K total volume
Resolves December 31, 2026
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
7,200 or above
99%

Cross-Platform Price Comparison

Outcome Gemini Kalshi Spread
7,400 or above 32%
8,200 or above 47% 32% 15.4pt
7,600 or above 81%
8,000 or above 79% 71% 7.7pt
8,600 or above 16% 14% 1.7pt
9,000 or above 9% 8% 0.9pt
7,200 or above 99%
8,800 or above 11% 8% 2.7pt
7,800 or above 89% 93% 4.4pt
8,400 or above 25% 24% 0.7pt

Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many platforms track "How high will the S&P get this year?"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "How high will the S&P get this year?"?
"7,200 or above" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 99%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "How high will the S&P get this year?"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "8,200 or above", where prices differ by 15.4 percentage points across platforms.
When does "How high will the S&P get this year?" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.