Politics
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Odds Compared
3 platforms $70.6M total volume Resolves November 7, 2028 Quoted 6h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
41%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
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| Person BV | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person BD | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person AO | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person CL | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 0% | — | 1.8pt |
| Will Mike Pence be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person AS | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person CF | — | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Katie Britt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Person CQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person CJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.1pt |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Kristi Noem be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Tom Cotton | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Matt Gaetz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 44% | 41% | — | 3.5pt |
| Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 0% | — | 1.7pt |
| Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 1.4pt |
| Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 3% | — | — |
| Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 1% | — | 0.8pt |
| Person AT | — | — | 0% | — |
| Jeff Bezos | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 21% | 19% | — | 2.5pt |
| Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 2% | — | 0.2pt |
| Will Steve Bannon be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 2% | — | 0.2pt |
| Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Lara Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Spencer Pratt | — | 1% | — | — |
| Chris Christie | — | 1% | — | — |
| Doug Burgum | — | 1% | — | — |
| Ben Shapiro | — | 1% | — | — |
| Wesley Hunt | — | 1% | — | — |
| Chris Sununu | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 5% | 5% | — | 0.1pt |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | — | 0% | 0% | 0.3pt |
| J.D. Vance | 45% | 41% | 40% | 5.1pt |
| Ron DeSantis | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1.8pt |
| Donald Trump | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0.1pt |
| Nikki Haley | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Byron Donalds | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Matt Gaetz | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Erika Kirk | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Katie Britt | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Tom Brady | — | 0% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Person N | — | — | 0% | — |
| Candace Owens | — | 1% | 0% | 0.3pt |
| Kim Kardashian | — | — | 0% | — |
| Brian Kemp | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1.7pt |
| Mike Pence | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Elise Stefanik | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Kristi Noem | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person P | — | — | 0% | — |
| Marco Rubio | 21% | 19% | 18% | 3.4pt |
| Josh Hawley | — | 1% | 0% | 0.4pt |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | — | 1% | 0% | 0.5pt |
| Steve Bannon | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person T | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person R | — | — | 0% | — |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Person U | — | — | 0% | — |
| Greg Abbott | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.8pt |
| Ivanka Trump | — | 1% | 1% | 0.3pt |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.7pt |
| Joe Kent | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person L | — | — | 0% | — |
| Person O | — | — | 0% | — |
| Rand Paul | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person K | — | — | 0% | — |
| John Thune | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person S | — | — | 0% | — |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1.5pt |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | — | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Person Q | — | — | 0% | — |
| Tucker Carlson | — | 3% | 3% | 0.5pt |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2.3pt |
| Elon Musk | — | 0% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Thomas Massie | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1.1pt |
| Pete Hegseth | — | 1% | 0% | 0.1pt |
| Person M | — | — | 0% | — |
| Tim Scott | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Tom Cotton be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 0% | — | — |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 2% | 0% | — | 1.6pt |
| Will Jeff Bezos be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 3% | 1% | — | 2.5pt |
| Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? | 4% | 1% | — | 3.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
"Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 41%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "J.D. Vance", where prices differ by 5.1 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.