Sports
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Odds Compared
3 platforms $203.0K total volume Resolves October 28, 2026 Quoted 6h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Harry Kane
68%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AY | — | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| AH | — | — | 0% | — |
| AJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| AL | — | — | 0% | — |
| AN | — | — | 0% | — |
| AP | — | — | 0% | — |
| AR | — | — | 0% | — |
| T | — | — | 0% | — |
| AT | — | — | 0% | — |
| AV | — | — | 0% | — |
| AX | — | — | 0% | — |
| AZ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BB | — | — | 0% | — |
| BF | — | — | 0% | — |
| BJ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BL | — | — | 0% | — |
| U | — | — | 0% | — |
| AK | — | — | 0% | — |
| AO | — | — | 0% | — |
| AQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| AS | — | — | 0% | — |
| AU | — | — | 0% | — |
| BN | — | — | 0% | — |
| BP | — | — | 0% | — |
| BR | — | — | 0% | — |
| BT | — | — | 0% | — |
| BV | — | — | 0% | — |
| BX | — | — | 0% | — |
| BZ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BA | — | — | 0% | — |
| BC | — | — | 0% | — |
| BI | — | — | 0% | — |
| BK | — | — | 0% | — |
| BM | — | — | 0% | — |
| BO | — | — | 0% | — |
| BQ | — | — | 0% | — |
| BS | — | — | 0% | — |
| BU | — | — | 0% | — |
| BW | — | — | 0% | — |
| BY | — | — | 0% | — |
| AM | — | — | 0% | — |
| Julian Alvarez | — | — | 0% | — |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | — | — | 0% | — |
| BH | — | — | 0% | — |
| BG | — | — | 0% | — |
| BD | — | — | 0% | — |
| Cole Palmer | 2% | 50% | 0% | 49.9pt |
| Desire Doue | 2% | 50% | 0% | 49.9pt |
| AW | — | — | 0% | — |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| AI | — | — | 0% | — |
| Federico Valverde | — | — | 0% | — |
| Scott McTominay | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Raphinha | 2% | 50% | 0% | 49.9pt |
| Mohamed Salah | 2% | 50% | 0% | 49.8pt |
| BE | — | — | 0% | — |
| Rayan Cherki | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Marcus Rashford | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Bukayo Saka | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Rodri | 4% | 1% | — | 3.5pt |
| Nuno Mendes | 1% | 1% | — | 0.5pt |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2% | 50% | 0% | 49.9pt |
| Pedri | 2% | 50% | 1% | 49.5pt |
| Bradley Barcola | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Phil Foden | 2% | 50% | — | 48.0pt |
| Bruno Fernandes | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| R | — | — | 0% | — |
| X | — | — | 0% | — |
| Luis Diaz | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| O | — | — | 1% | — |
| Lionel Messi | 8% | 2% | 1% | 7.1pt |
| AD | — | — | 0% | — |
| Lamine Yamal | 22% | 12% | 11% | 11.1pt |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Jude Bellingham | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| AB | — | — | 0% | — |
| AF | — | — | 0% | — |
| Z | — | — | 0% | — |
| Erling Haaland | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Y | — | — | 0% | — |
| AA | — | — | 0% | — |
| Michael Olise | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| V | — | — | 0% | — |
| Vitinha | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| AE | — | — | 0% | — |
| Q | — | — | 0% | — |
| W | — | — | 0% | — |
| AG | — | — | 0% | — |
| Harry Kane | 56% | 71% | 68% | 14.5pt |
| AC | — | — | 0% | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Achraf Hakimi | — | — | 0% | — |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| Declan Rice | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1.9pt |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0.9pt |
| Kylian Mbappé | 9% | 18% | 21% | 12.0pt |
| S | — | — | 0% | — |
| P | — | — | 0% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football ( https://www.francefootball.fr/ ).
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?
"Harry Kane" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 68%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Cole Palmer", where prices differ by 49.9 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 28, 2026.