Politics
Presidential Election Winner 2028? Odds Compared
3 platforms $71.6K total volume Resolves November 10, 2028 Quoted 6h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
JD Vance
20%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | — | — | 0% | — |
| :: Unknown | — | 0% | — | — |
| Who will win the next presidential election? | — | 1% | — | — |
| Stephen Smith | — | 0% | 0% | 0.3pt |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | — | 9% | 6.5pt |
| LeBron James | — | — | 0% | — |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | — | 3% | 2.1pt |
| Nikki Haley | — | — | 0% | — |
| JD Vance | 23% | — | 20% | 2.9pt |
| Pete Hegseth | — | — | 0% | — |
| Jalen Brunson | — | — | 0% | — |
| Jamie Dimon | — | 1% | 0% | 0.5pt |
| Kim Kardashian | — | — | 0% | — |
| Elon Musk | — | — | 0% | — |
| Wes Moore | — | — | 1% | — |
| Tucker Carlson | — | — | 1% | — |
| Ro Khanna | — | — | 1% | — |
| Ron DeSantis | — | — | 3% | — |
| Eric Trump | — | — | 0% | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | — | 2% | 2.6pt |
| Gretchen Whitmer | — | — | 0% | — |
| Greg Abbott | — | — | 0% | — |
| Glenn Youngkin | — | — | 0% | — |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | — | 1% | 0.3pt |
| Tim Walz | — | — | 0% | — |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | — | — | 0% | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11% | — | 13% | 2.1pt |
| Ivanka Trump | — | — | 1% | — |
| JB Pritzker | — | — | 1% | — |
| Donald Trump | 4% | — | 0% | 3.6pt |
| Person Q | — | — | 0% | — |
| Michelle Obama | — | — | 0% | — |
| Thomas Massie | — | — | 1% | — |
| James Talarico | — | — | 2% | — |
| Zohran Mamdani | — | — | 0% | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | — | — | 0% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 10% | — | 11% | 1.3pt |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | — | 4% | 0.2pt |
| Andy Beshear | 4% | — | 2% | 1.9pt |
| Jon Ossoff | 12% | — | 9% | 2.6pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
3 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
"JD Vance" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 20%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Marco Rubio", where prices differ by 6.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Presidential Election Winner 2028" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2028.