Politics
Which party will win the U.S. House? Odds Compared
2 platforms $304.8K total volume Resolves February 1, 2027 Quoted 13h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
90%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the House in 2026? | — | 90% | — |
| Democratic Party | 85% | 90% | 5.1pt |
| Will Republicans win the House in 2026? | — | 11% | — |
| Republican Party | 16% | 11% | 5.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Which party will win the U.S. House"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Which party will win the U.S. House"?
"Will Democrats win the House in 2026?" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 90%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Which party will win the U.S. House"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Republican Party", where prices differ by 5.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Which party will win the U.S. House" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.