Politics
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Odds Compared
2 platforms $604.4K total volume Resolves November 7, 2029 Quoted 6h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Democratic
65%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party K | — | 0% | — |
| Party L | — | 0% | — |
| Other | — | 0% | — |
| Party E | — | 0% | — |
| Party B | — | 0% | — |
| Party C | — | 0% | — |
| Party F | — | 0% | — |
| Party G | — | 0% | — |
| Party I | — | 0% | — |
| Party J | — | 0% | — |
| Party H | — | 0% | — |
| Party D | — | 0% | — |
| Party A | 41% | 0% | 40.5pt |
| Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028? | 60% | — | — |
| Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028? | 41% | — | — |
| Republican | 41% | 35% | 6.0pt |
| Democratic | 60% | 65% | 5.5pt |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Kalshi, Polymarket. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election"?
"Democratic" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 65%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Party A", where prices differ by 40.5 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2029.