Politics
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Odds Compared
2 platforms $54.6K total volume Resolves January 1, 2027 Quoted 13h ago
Frontrunner — 7 day trend
Ilhan Omar
39%
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Castro | 0% | — | — |
| Miles Taylor | — | 9% | — |
| Mark Milley | 0% | 6% | 5.8pt |
| Liz Cheney | 0% | 6% | 5.5pt |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | 6% | 5.8pt |
| Tucker Carlson | 0% | 5% | 4.8pt |
| Chris Christie | 99% | 5% | 93.8pt |
| Chris Krebs | 10% | 8% | 1.9pt |
| Elissa Slotkin | 7% | 6% | 1.4pt |
| Fani Willis | 22% | 14% | 8.5pt |
| Joe Kent | 34% | 6% | 28.5pt |
| Gustavo Petro | 99% | 11% | 88.5pt |
| Alvin Bragg | 16% | 7% | 9.0pt |
| Adam Schiff | 12% | 6% | 5.9pt |
| Christopher Wray | 12% | 5% | 7.1pt |
| James Clapper | 20% | 10% | 10.5pt |
| Ilhan Omar | 20% | 39% | 19.0pt |
| Jacob Frey | 10% | 6% | 3.9pt |
| Cassidy Hutchinson | — | 27% | — |
| Gavin Newsom | — | 9% | — |
| George Soros | — | 5% | — |
| Andrew Weissmann | — | 10% | — |
| E. Jean Carroll | — | 10% | — |
| Joe Biden | 4% | 3% | 1.4pt |
| Hunter Biden | 6% | 9% | 3.5pt |
| Anthony Fauci | 53% | 14% | 39.5pt |
| Tim Walz | 9% | 7% | 1.7pt |
| John Brennan | 39% | 21% | 18.5pt |
| Keith Ellison | 11% | 9% | 1.7pt |
| Jerome Powell | 4% | 5% | 0.5pt |
| Letitia James | 20% | 6% | 13.6pt |
| Mark Kelly | 9% | 6% | 3.4pt |
| Lisa Cook | 18% | 10% | 8.2pt |
| Peter Strzok | 99% | 9% | 89.5pt |
| Jack Smith | 26% | 11% | 15.5pt |
| Bill Clinton | 10% | 3% | 7.3pt |
| Barack Obama | 10% | 3% | 6.7pt |
| Hillary Clinton | 35% | 4% | 31.3pt |
| Lisa Monaco | — | 7% | — |
| Reid Hoffman | — | 5% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
Resolution criteria
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026"?
"Ilhan Omar" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 39%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on "Chris Christie", where prices differ by 93.8 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.