Politics
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? Odds Compared
2 platforms $24.7K total volume Resolves January 1, 2027 Quoted 13h ago
Cross-Platform Price Comparison
1.6pt spread ≥ 1pt
| Outcome | Gemini | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| :: Secretary of Homeland Security | — | 0% | — |
| :: Border Patrol Commander-at-Large | — | 0% | — |
| :: Deputy Director of the FBI | — | 0% | — |
| :: Attorney General | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Labor | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Karoline Leavitt | 0% | — | — |
| :: SBA Administrator | 0% | 11% | 10.8pt |
| :: White House Press Secretary | 25% | 50% | 25.0pt |
| :: Deputy Attorney General | 67% | 50% | 17.0pt |
| :: Secretary of State | 0% | 9% | 9.2pt |
| Mike Huckabee | 21% | — | — |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0% | — | — |
| :: Director of National Intelligence | 0% | 0% | 0.0pt |
| Peter Navarro | 20% | — | — |
| :: Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service | 62% | 30% | 32.5pt |
| :: EPA Administrator | 28% | 6% | 21.8pt |
| Kash Patel | 21% | — | — |
| Marco Rubio | 12% | — | — |
| Sean Duffy | 21% | — | — |
| Howard Lutnick | 28% | — | — |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 32% | — | — |
| Jamieson Greer | 19% | — | — |
| Linda McMahon | 22% | — | — |
| Brooke Rollins | 23% | — | — |
| Mehmet Oz | 20% | — | — |
| Scott Turner | 12% | — | — |
| Steve Witkoff | 27% | — | — |
| Pete Hegseth | 33% | — | — |
| Lee Zeldin | 23% | — | — |
| Brendan Carr | 19% | — | — |
| Amy Gleason | 45% | — | — |
| Todd Blanche | 92% | — | — |
| Scott Bessent | 15% | — | — |
| Bill Pulte | 30% | — | — |
| Tom Homan | 19% | — | — |
| Susie Wiles | 28% | — | — |
| John Ratcliffe | 21% | — | — |
| Stephen Miller | 16% | — | — |
| Russell Vought | 14% | — | — |
| Doug Burgum | 21% | — | — |
| Rodney Scott | 19% | — | — |
| Chris Wright | 29% | — | — |
| Doug Collins | 21% | — | — |
| :: Special Envoy to the Middle East | 24% | 18% | 6.5pt |
| :: CMS Administrator | 0% | 11% | 11.0pt |
| :: FHFA Director | 30% | 24% | 6.5pt |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 0% | — | — |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | — | — |
| Kelly Loeffler | 24% | — | — |
| :: White House Border Czar | 0% | 14% | 14.5pt |
| :: Chairman of the FCC | 0% | 11% | 10.5pt |
| :: HHS Secretary | 32% | 13% | 19.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Education | 20% | 18% | 2.0pt |
| :: Deputy Chief of Staff | — | 11% | — |
| :: Chief of Staff | 20% | 37% | 16.5pt |
| :: Secretary of the Interior | 0% | 11% | 10.5pt |
| :: Secretary of Commerce | 34% | 16% | 18.5pt |
| :: Secretary of Transportation | 9% | 12% | 3.0pt |
| :: United States Trade Representative | 0% | 12% | 11.5pt |
| :: Secretary of Veterans Affairs | 0% | 31% | 31.0pt |
| :: Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing | 0% | 14% | 14.5pt |
| :: OMB Director | 0% | 12% | 11.5pt |
| :: Secretary of Agriculture | 22% | 17% | 5.0pt |
| :: Secretary of Energy | 26% | 14% | 11.5pt |
| :: Director of the FBI | 59% | 18% | 41.0pt |
| :: Ambassador to Israel | 28% | 16% | 12.5pt |
| :: CBP Commissioner | 10% | 13% | 2.5pt |
| :: Director of the CIA | 33% | 13% | 20.5pt |
| :: Secretary of the Treasury | 0% | 6% | 6.4pt |
| :: Secretary of Defense | 22% | 25% | 2.5pt |
| :: Secretary of Housing and Urban Development | 0% | 15% | 15.0pt |
| Kash Patel:: Director of the FBI | — | 18% | — |
Prices shown as implied probability (%). Spread is the largest gap between platforms for that outcome — a wider spread means the platforms disagree more about the likely result. A spread of 1+ point is stamped.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many platforms track "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026"?
2 platforms currently quote this market: Gemini, Kalshi. Odds Reference aggregates live prices from each and shows them side by side.
What is the current frontrunner for "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026"?
"Todd Blanche" is the current frontrunner at an implied probability of 92%, based on the latest prices across tracked platforms.
Do platforms disagree on the price for "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026"?
Yes — the largest current disagreement is on ":: Director of the FBI", where prices differ by 41.0 percentage points across platforms.
When does "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026" resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.