Futures Odds: Exchanges vs Sportsbooks
The same event, priced two different ways. Prediction-market exchanges set prices through open trading; sportsbooks price futures with their own risk models and vig. Our data shows they routinely disagree by several percentage points on the identical outcome — these are the widest gaps right now.
Widest gaps right now
As of OCT 24 · 9:12 AM ET| Event | Outcome | Exchange | Best book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Series | World Series Colorado Rockies | 50.0% | 0.1% | -49.9pt |
| World Series | World Series Cleveland Guardians | 0.1% | 22.2% | +22.2pt |
| NBA Championship | NBA Championship San Antonio Spurs | 19.5% | 27.0% | +7.5pt |
| Super Bowl | Super Bowl Los Angeles Rams | 6.5% | 12.5% | +6.0pt |
| Super Bowl | Super Bowl Baltimore Ravens | 6.7% | 11.1% | +4.5pt |
| NBA Championship | NBA Championship Oklahoma City Thunder | 23.5% | 27.8% | +4.3pt |
Every comparison, by event
- Super Bowl Odds Polymarket vs BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings, FanDuel +6.0pt edge 32 entrants
- World Series Odds Gemini, Novig, Polymarket vs BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings, FanDuel -49.9pt edge 30 entrants
- NBA Championship Odds Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket vs BetMGM, BetRivers, FanDuel +7.5pt edge 30 entrants